NFL Cover of the Week: Saints at 49ers

11/6/16: New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers – Game Analysis and Betting Prediction

New Orleans comes into this game allowing the 2nd most points per game at 30.7, and the worst team when it comes to points allowed? The 49ers, at 31.3 points per game. So, when the 3-4 Saints travel to Santa Clara to take on the 1-6 49ers, you can bet on one thing, it won’t be a defensive struggle.

So, take the over right?

Well, kind of…

Where Do the Points Come From?

Although the Saints are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, they’ve only allowed 775 rushing yards on the season – 13th best. Now, I don’t believe it’s due to a dominant run d, but due to the fact teams have to throw to keep up with the high-powered Saints offense (they’ve had the 11th fewest rush attempts against).

As a result, the Saints have allowed the 13th most passing yards, 2007… Seems like a good thing for the 49ers, but not really. Why? If there’s been a positive for the 49ers offense, it’s their run game, but when it comes to passing they’re dead last (1130 yards – 161 yards per game). While they should go well over their average of 161 yards/game, I don’t expect Colin Kaepernick to come out and sling the ball around the yard this afternoon.

For that reason, I’m hesitant to take the over on the total of 53.5. I just don’t trust this 49ers offense.

I do, however, trust the 49ers defense. The 49ers have allowed at least 30 points in 5 of 7 games, and over their past 3 games, they’ve allowed an average of 37 points per game. Neither the Cardinals, Bills, or Buccaneers offense is nearly as potent as the Saints, who have scored at least 30 in 4 of 7.

Even more damning, the 49ers have allowed their opponents the 2nd highest time of possession, the 2nd most plays run per game, and are giving up points at an alarming rate (14.1 yards per point). I expect Drew Brees and co. to take full advantage.

Take the Saints Team Total Over 30 (-110)

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