10/21/16: Oregon @ California – Game Analysis/Betting Prediction
What were you doing two years ago? 730 days? 17,520 hours? Mere minutes in the grand scheme of things, and if you’re anything like me, it probably feels like yesterday. However, if you’re an Oregon football fan, I’m sure it feels like a lifetime.
Rewind back to 2014… The Ducks were on the verge of their 12th Conference Title, and 2nd National Championship appearance. They had a Heisman quarterback, and spent most of the season in the Top 3. They had the flashy uniforms, state of the art facilities, and were the the clubhouse leader in bandwagon fans.
Fast forward to 2016 – 1,051,200 minutes later – they’re 2-4, coming off a 49 point home loss, unranked, and very few people can name more than 2 players on their squad… The Ducks are irrelevant (although they do still have dope uniforms, and facilities).
Sorry to put your team on blast Ducks fans, but the point is, life comes at you fast. Always remember to count your blessings. Enjoy every moment to the fullest, and take nothing for granted (Life tips from Leonard).
First to 100 Wins
So, here we are – in the present – and the 2-4 Ducks are set to take on the 3-3 Cal Golden Bears in a primetime ESPN matchup… Yay! Who doesn’t like being forced to watch two below average teams on a Friday night?! Well, if you like offense, be sure to tune into this one and here’s why…
Of the 128 FBS teams, Cal is #12 in Scoring Offense (42.3 ppg), and Oregon is #28 (36.8 ppg). Oregon is #122 in Time of Possession, Cal is #113. What about Scoring Defense, you ask? Great question… Oregon #125, Cal #123. For those keeping score at home, both teams score a lot. Score a lot quickly. And, allow the other team to score a lot. And, score a lot quickly.
I can hear it now, “Well, Cal has a decent secondary. They’ve only allowed only 1265 yards (211/game), 4 passing TDs, and 6.55 yards per pass”…. No. Oregon runs the ball on 60% of their plays, and is averaging over 6 yards per carry. Cal is #127 (of 128 remember) in rushing defense, and Adrian Gonzalez could probably rush for over 100 yards against them… They won’t be throwing much. No one does (Hence the impressive passing d numbers).
On the flip side, Davis Webb (Cal’s QB), is 3rd in the FBS in passing yards (2,256), and Cal ranks 4th in passing attempts (302). And guess what?? Oregon ranks 117th in passing defense. Yikes.
This is a classic strength vs. weakness matchup, and for grins, each team averages only about 5 punts/game (good for 83rd, and 94th). So, who wins the game?! Hell if I know, but it’s going to be a shootout. Take the Over.
Over 89 (-120)