Gambler’s NFL Power Rankings – Week 12

Biggest risers: Detroit Lions – Up 8

Biggest fallers: Green Bay Packers – Down 8

*The Gambler’s Power Rankings focuses on a team’s record against the spread, but also factors win-loss records, statistical performance, and schedule strength to help identify which teams should be favored, and by how much.

1. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 1)

Record: 10-1

Record ATS: 9-2

Since last week, the Cowboys handled up on Baltimore, and while the final score on Thanksgiving Day was close, there was very little doubt that the Boys would win from the opening drive. At this point, it looks like the only thing that can possibly stop them is injury.

2. New England Patriots (Last Week: 2)

Record: 8-2

Record ATS: 8-2

Depending on when you took it, the Patriots may or may not have covered against the 49ers (a garbage time TD being the difference) – it happens. But, they’re still dominant, and with the Jets, Rams, and Ravens on deck, that won’t change any time soon.

3. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 4)

Record: 7-2-1

Record ATS: 6-4

Per usual, the Seahawks rolled through November. Chances are, they’ll continue to roll. Of the 6 games left on their schedule, 5 are against teams with a sub-.500 record.

4. Oakland Raiders (Last Week: 3)

Record: 8-2

Record ATS: 7-3

The Raiders struggled at times against the Texans, but a win is a win, and a cover is a cover.

5. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 5)

Record: 7-3

Record ATS: 7-3

The Broncos struggled a bit heading into their Week 11 bye, but injuries on the defensive side were the main reason, so the bye came right on time. 

6. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 7)

Record: 6-4

Record ATS: 6-4

I’m not putting too much stock into their loss at Philly, and will give them a slight edge over the next 4 teams due to schedule strength. They should handle the Cardinals at home this week, if not, then there will be cause for concern.

7. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 15)

Record: 7-4

Record ATS: 7-4

The Lions have won, and covered, in 7 of 8 and 3 straight. They’ve trailed in the 4th quarter in each of their games, so their record feels a bit fluky, but you can’t argue with wins against Philly, Washington, and 2 against Minnesota.

8. Washington Redskins (Last Week: 10)

Record: 6-4-1

Record ATS: 8-3

Kirk Cousins has averaged 412 yards passing over their last 2 games, and currently, the Redskins offense looks as good as any in the league. If only they had a corner opposite Josh Norman.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 14)

Record: 6-5

Record ATS: 6-5

Two cake match-ups is just what Pittsburgh needed to get their confidence back. Up next, a matchup with the Giants in Week 13. That’ll tell us what we really need to know about their chances in the AFC.

10. New York Giants (Last Week: 12)

Record: 7-3

Record ATS: 5-4-1

Winners of 5 straight, the Giants jump into the Top-10 by default. I’ve had 2 knocks on them all season, but they seem to have found a pass rush, and their run game has actually looked viable. Still, it feels like something is missing.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 8)

Record: 7-3

Record ATS: 4-5-1

Injuries are killing the Chiefs.

12. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 6)

Record: 4-6

Record ATS: 6-3-1

In the real world, the Saints continue to find ways to lose games. In the gambling world, the Saints continue to find ways to cover the spread.

13. Houston Texans (Last Week: 11)

Record: 6-4

Record ATS: 5-4-1

Their 6 wins have come against teams with a combined 28-35 record, and their 4 losses came to New England, Minnesota, Denver, and Oakland… By an average of 17 points. Detroit is starting to look like a good win, and they did beat KC, but I’m not changing the Texans write up until they beat another good team… Each of their remaining games is against a team with a sub-.500 record. 

14. San Diego Chargers (Last Week: 9)

Record: 4-6

Record ATS: 6-4

Like the Saints, the Chargers always find themselves in the game in the 4th quarter. Like the Saints, they then find a way to blow it.

15. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 13)

Record: 6-4

Record ATS: 6-4

The Dolphins come and go with the health of their offensive line, and they looked horrendous on Sunday… They could be without Pouncey, Albert, and Tunsil for another week. Luckily, they face San Francisco, so their 5 game win streak may not be in jeopardy. Their 5 game streak against the spread, though, has a good chance of ending without them.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 16)

Record: 5-5

Record ATS: 5-5

Everyone loses in Seattle, but at least they showed some grit. Problem is, their offense is a mess. Outside of Mathews’ explosion against Atlanta, their run game hasn’t been anything to write home about, and Wentz is averaging 6.57 yards per attempt – good for 28th in the league.

17. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 17)

Record: 6-5

Record ATS: 6-5

They’ve lost 5 of 6 straight up, and against the spread. They’re the 2016, 2015 Atlanta Falcons.

18. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 22)

Record: 5-5

Record ATS: 5-5

Inconsistent is the best word that comes to mind… Or Bills. 

 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 23)

Record: 5-5

Record ATS: 5-5

The Bucs are 2-0 since Doug Martin returned, and just did something no NFL team had done in 406 days… They beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

20. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 19)

Record: 5-5

Record ATS: 4-6

They’ve benefitted from an easy schedule. Their 5 wins: Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh (with an injured Roethlisberger), and Cleveland again.

21. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 21)

Record: 5-6

Record ATS: 5-5-1

Hopefully, Andrew Luck returns next week, and they can keep him upright. I don’t think my brain can even attempt to process any more Tolzien.

22. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 20)

Record: 5-6

Record ATS: 4-7

Mariota is playing out of his mind, but they can’t seem to find a way to string together wins. They haven’t won 2 straight since Weeks 5 and 6.

23. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 27)

Record: 4-6

Record ATS: 4-5-1

The Rams haven’t been good. Yes, their offense looked kiiiinda better with Goff under center, but this week makes only the 2nd time this season they’ve been at least a TD underdog at open. So, the oddsmakers aren’t buying him in his 1st road start. You shouldn’t either.

24. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 24)

Record: 4-6

Record ATS: 2-7-1

Carolina has won 3 of 4, but only covered once in their last 8 games. While they’re not completely out of the race for the NFC South crown – don’t expect them to pack it in yet – they’re pretty damn close, and the loss of Kuechly doesn’t help.

25. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 25)

Record: 4-5-1

Record ATS: 3-7

Maybe at some point I’ll figure out what’s wrong with this team, but for now, I’m at a loss.

26. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 18)

Record: 4-6

Record ATS: 4-5-1

Luckily, they’ve played a relatively weak schedule. Otherwise, they’d be in the running for the #2 pick.

27. New York Jets (Last Week: 30)

Record: 3-7

Record ATS: 3-7

Two positives for the Jets: 1. Rex Ryan is no longer there, 2. their defense is still solid.

28. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 26)

Record: 3-6-1

Record ATS: 3-7

The Bengals offense was struggling. Then, A.J. Green, and Giovani Bernard went down with injuries… I think reality has set in for the Bengals. They’re playing for draft position.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 28)

Record: 2-8

Record ATS: 4-6

They’ve lost 5 straight, and covered the spread once in their last 5. It’ll be an interesting race between them, Cincinnati, Chicago, and San Francisco for the #2 pick.

30. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 29)

Record: 2-8

Record ATS: 3-7

My bet is on Chicago for the #2 pick. 

31. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 31)

Record: 1-9

Record ATS: 2-8

L’s… Lots of red L’s.

32. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 32)

Record: 0-11

Record ATS: 2-9

………………

As always, be sure to check me out on Instagram/Facebook: maximizeyourodds, and Twitter: maxingyourodds or shoot me an email: leonard@maximizeyourodds.com for betting picks, and/or fantasy advice.

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