The Gambler’s MLB Power Rankings – The Midterm

The Midsummer Classic has come and gone – which means about half of the season has passed, and my MLB power rankings are long overdue.

Better late than never.

The Gambler’s MLB Power Rankings factors a team’s win-loss record with their return on investment (ROI) to help determine their rank.

*ROI data from BetLabs is calculated by taking the amount of money won, and dividing by the total games played*

1. Houston Astros

Record: 60-29 (2nd)
ROI: 17.7% (1st)

Dominance. This offense ranks among the greatest of all-time, which helps to explain their +162 run differential, but it doesn’t tell the full story – their pitching staff has been lights out as well. And their ace, Dallas Keuchel, hasn’t pitched since June 2nd…

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 61-29 (1st)
ROI: 6.3% (T-7th)

The Dodgers boast a league-leading 3.15 team ERA, and their +163 run differential is 2nd to none. Their lineup is stacked, and their rotation features 2 Cy Young candidates. This team is loaded. Problem is, they tend to be HEAVY favorites, and their ROI is a direct reflection.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 53-36 (3rd)
ROI: 13% (4th)

Great pitching, stacked lineup, 73 different uniform combinations, and a swimming pool in right center… What more do you need?

4. Colorado Rockies

Record: 52-39 (5th)
ROI: 15.7% (3rd)

The Rockies limped into the break – winning only 7 of their last 20 – and summer at Coors doesn’t project well for their rookie laden rotation. But, they rake, the return of Jon Gray will help, and you can’t argue with a 15.7% ROI.

5. Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 50-41 (7th)
ROI: 17.6% (2nd)

The Brewers have a James Harden-esque vibe. Eric Thames’ beard aside, they’re tied for 2nd most errors in the MLB (69), but sit 2nd in home runs (138), 6th in runs (451), and Top-10 in nearly every other offensive category. Defense is overrated.

6. Washington Nationals

Record: 52-36 (4th)
ROI: 1.2% (12th)

You’d be hard-pressed to find 5 teams better than the Nats, but their 1.2% ROI leaves a lot to be desired. Like the Dodgers, they fall victim to being heavily favored in the majority of their contests.

7. Kansas City Royals

Record: 44-43 (12th)
ROI: 7.2% (5th)

After a slow start, the Royals closed out the 1st half as one of the hottest teams in baseball, and they’ve been one of the most profitable teams all season; yet not many noticed. If you didn’t know, now you know.

8. Minnesota Twins

Record: 45-43 (11th)
ROI: 6.8% (6th)

The Twins -60 run differential is the 7th worst in the MLB, which makes their 1st “half” record seem a bit fluky, but their 20-28 home record adds a bit of clarity… They just don’t like Target Field.

9. Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 47-43 (10th)
ROI: 3.6% (10th)

Like the Royals, the Rays often go unnoticed. They’re just a blue-collar ish team, who does a little bit of everything well. You won’t hear many folks mentioning the Rays among the best teams in baseball (outside of St. Pete), but you should.

Oh, and they knock the cover off the ball. They finished the 1st “half” 4th in homeruns, and have gone over the total in 59.6% of their contests; 2nd to only the Mets.

10. Boston Red Sox

Record: 50-39 (6th)
ROI: -2.3% (16th)

Another victim of the moneyline. The Sox win, and win often, but that hasn’t lead to profits.

11. Los Angeles Angels

Record: 45-47 (T-13th)
ROI: 3.9% (9th)

Injuries have plagued this squad, but they’ve done a good job staying above water with Mike Trout out… That had potential to go somewhere, trout… water… but nah. It didn’t. I should’ve stuck with Angels in the outfield.

12. Atlanta Braves

Record: 42-45 (17th)
ROI: 6.3% (T-7th)

If you would’ve told me coming into the season that Julio Teheran would have a hot garbagey 4.79 ERA, and Freddie Freeman would miss significant time, I would’ve told you the Braves would be lucky to win 30 games by the break. But, here we are, and they’ve actually been one of the better teams over the past month; going 14-9 since June 14th.

13. Texas Rangers

Record: 43-45 (T-13th)
ROI: 0.9% (13th)

If you follow me on Twitter, you’re well aware that this bullpen is trash. If you don’t follow me on Twitter, you’re probably still well aware that this bullpen is trash. In customary Rangers fashion, this offense smacks the ball around the yard with ease, but that bullpen though…

Oh, and @maxingyourodds

14. New York Yankees

Record: 45-41 (9th)
ROI: -3.3% (17th)

What happened to Masahiro Tanaka? Yeah, he went into the break on a high note – pitching well in 3 of his last 4 – but he’s sporting a 7-8 record to go with a 5.47 ERA on the year. He’s been the only real black eye for this surprising Yankees squad (besides the injuries).

15. Cleveland Indians

Record: 47-40 (8th)
ROI: -8.7% (22nd)

The Indians’ bullpen boasts a MLB leading 2.84 ERA, and at 4.84 runs per game, this offense is no joke either. The problem has been finding consistent starting pitching outside of Corey Kluber. Real or not, the emergence of Mike Clevinger has been exactly what this team needs in a tightly contested AL Central.

16. Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 42-47 (20th)
ROI: -2.2% (15th)

Ivan Nova has pitched well. Taillon made a successful recovery, and has pitched well. McCutchen has been on a tear. Their uniforms are dope… Those have been about the only positives for the Buccos. They did win 5 of 6 heading into the break, so maybe they’ve turned a corner?

17. St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 43-45 (T-13th)
ROI: -10% (24th)

The Cardinals rotation boasts the 5th best ERA – 3.90 – yet their 4 main starters have a combined 19-26 record.

18. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 42-46 (19th)
ROI: -4% (18th)

Baltimore isn’t hitting well, and to make matters worse, their starting pitching has been dreadful. Trey Mancini is having a solid rookie campaign, however. For whatever that’s worth.

19. Seattle Mariners

Record: 43-47 (18th)
ROI: -7.1% (21st)

After a 15-11 June, the Mariners went 3-6 to start July, and continue to be one of the more inconsistent teams this league has to offer. They have been one of the better teams at home, however, just please do me a favor, and stay away when they hit the road.

20. Miami Marlins

Record: 41-46 (21st)
ROI: -5.2% (20th)

The Marlins feel like a better team than their record indicates, but they say you are what your record says you are, and their starting pitching further backs their sub-.500 performance.

21. Cincinnati Reds

Record: 39-49 (25th)
ROI: -4.7% (19th)

Offensively, these Reds have a bit of Big Red Machine in them… Minus the Hall of Famers. Their starters also happen to own a league worst, 5.91 ERA.

4.82 runs per game + 5.91 ERA (starters) = a 47-37-4 record going over the total (8th highest).

22. Chicago Cubs

Record: 43-45 (T-13th)
ROI: -17.8% (28th)

Talk about a fall from grace. The Cubs added Jose Quintana, which will help bolster their staff, but simply fading them (and their public perception) has led to a 17.9% ROI. Not too shabby.

23. Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 41-47 (22nd)
ROI: -9.7% (23rd)

When you lose a hitter with the talent of Edwin Encarnacion, an offensive drop-off is to be expected. But, not this offensive. Only 4 teams have scored fewer runs per game than the Blue Jays… They finished last season scoring the 10th most.

24. San Diego Padres

Record: 38-50 (28th)
ROI: -0.7% (14th)

One of those 4 teams who’ve scored fewer runs per game than the Jays? Yep, the Swinging Friars. However, they do have one of the best relievers you’ve probably never heard of – Brad Hand. Unfortunately, he can’t pitch 9 innings, or daily.

25. New York Mets

Record: 39-47 (23rd)
ROI: -14.2% (27th)

The Mets 49-27-10 record going over the total leads the bigs by a comfortable margin, and their pitching (which was their strength just 2 seasons ago when they won the pennant) has been the main culprit.

26. Detroit Tigers

Record: 39-48 (24th)
ROI: -11.5% (26th)

Miguel Cabrera is finally starting to look his age, as is Verlander for that matter (he did pull Kate Upton, though)… Honestly, the whole team feels old (sans Michael Fulmer).

When their offense is clicking, they can put up runs with the best. Problem is, we don’t often see it. Find me an old man who can perform consistently, and I’ll show you a Viagra user. I wonder if Viagra is on the banned substance list?

27. Chicago White Sox

Record: 38-49 (27th)
ROI: 1.5% (11th)

Sell. Sell. Sell. Rebuild.

Surprisingly, betting the Black Sox has been semi-profitable.

28. Oakland Athletics

Record: 39-50 (26th)
ROI: -10.1% (25th)

The A’s remain on the hamster wheel of mediocrity. It always feels like they’re rebuilding, yet they never actually rebuild. The Moneyball days are long gone, but the formula remains.

29. San Francisco Giants

Record: 34-56 (29th)
ROI: -23% (29th)

If there’s any sort of optimism to be had for Giants’ fans, Bumgarner should be back following the break. Raise your hand if you think it’ll matter..

30. Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 29-58 (30th)
ROI: -24.3% (30th)

I could take the time to explain all the ways the Phillies are terrible, or I could just say, the Phillies are terrible. I’ll go with the latter. The Phillies are terrible.

Good luck in the 2nd half, and as always, be sure to check me out on Twitter: @maxingyourodds and be sure to subscribe to stay up to date with the latest content, free picks, and advice!

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