DraftKings Starts of the Week – Week 2

No, I didn’t have the perfect lineup last week. So, I write this as a non-billionaire, and that is depressing.

I did, however, come out on top. And you will too, with my DraftKings Starts of the Week.

Quarterback

*Tier 1: $7,000+, Tier 2: $7,000-$6,000, Tier 3: $6,000-$5,000, Tier 4: Under $5,000

Tier 1: Tom Brady – NE @ NO ($7,900)

You really can’t go wrong in this tier this week, but if you’re going to pay up on QB, the guy you’ll want to spend on is Tom Brady. Yeah yeah, he completed just 44% of his passes in Week 1 with no touchdowns. But honestly, that’s all the more reason to like him.

Remember the “angry Tom Brady” we saw when he returned from suspension a year ago? The guy that threw for 3,554 yards, 28 TDs, and just 2 INTs in just 12 regular season games? Well, the Pats were just embarrassed in their home opener, and the haters are having a field day.

I’m thinking Brady will come out with vengeance on the brain.

Then, there’s the Saints d which has been historically bad in recent years and just allowed Sam Bradford to go 27-32 for 346 yards and 3 TDs. If Bradford can ball out on the Saints, there’s no reason to think Brady doesn’t do the same; even with an injury ravaged receiving corps.

Tier 2: Jameis Winston – TB vs. CHI ($6,300)

While Matt Ryan threw just one TD against this Bears defense a week ago, he completed 70% of his passes for 321 yards.

Not exactly a struggle.

Jameis finished last season 12th in passing yards, put up the 7th most passing TDs, and that was without DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. This offense looked unstoppable in the preseason, and have one of the best match-ups they could ask for to open the season.

They also had an extra week to prepare.

Tier 3: Joe Flacco – BAL vs. CLE ($5,200)

The Ravens team point total for the week is currently 23.5 at -120 odds to go over, and I believe they do. We’ll see a different offense this week for a few reasons:

  1. The Bengals defense is like Great Tiger (hated that guy), while the Browns are more Von Kaiser.
  2. Flacco finally saw game action, and while he surely hasn’t knocked all of the rust off, he’s one step closer.
  3. It’s the Ravens home opener.

Flacco was 2nd in the league in passing attempts in 2016 so don’t let his 17 attempts Week 1 scare you away. Sure, the Ravens would be wise to continue to ease him back in, but he should still put up top-15 QB numbers this week.

Tier 4: Trevor Siemian – DEN vs. DAL ($4,900)

I advise you stay away from this tier, but if you just have to go big money at RB/WR, Siemian should be a solid start Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys defense shut down the Giants Sunday night, but they didn’t have to deal with the altitude, Odell Beckham Jr., or a NFL-caliber offensive line.

Siemian doesn’t offer much upside, but his floor also happens to be relatively high. You can expect around 200 yards, a TD, and about 15 DK fantasy points.

Running Back

*Tier 1: $7,000+, Tier 2: $7,000-$6,000, Tier 3: $6,000-$5,000, Tier 4: Under $5,000

Tier 1: Ezekiel Elliott – DAL at DEN ($7,800)

The Broncos “No Fly Zone” is one of the best secondaries in the NFL, so it’s not likely we’ll see Dak airing it out. And, while I have no idea what’s going on with this suspension, Zeke’s playing days might be limited.

You have to figure he’ll be extremely busy in this one.

The one chink in the armor of this Broncos defense has been the run game, and Zeke just rushed for 104 yards against last season’s 3rd best rushing defense (yards/game). True, Melvin Gordon struggled to find room to run against the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed/per game in 2016.

I’ll take my chances. Zeke should make it two straight 100-yard games.

Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch – OAK vs. NYJ ($6,000)

It’s early, but it looks like Marshawn will silent all the critics who said he wouldn’t be the same following a year away from the game. We’ll see how he holds up as the season progresses, but for now, start him with confidence. Especially this week because:

  1. Sheldon Richardson was the main contributor to the Jets success against the run in 2016… He now plays for the Seahawks
  2. LeSean McCoy averaged 5 yards per carry against these Jets
  3. Lynch rushed for 76 yards on 18 carries in Week 1 against the Titans – who were one of the top run defenses a season ago
  4. The Raiders are heavy favorites at home

Tier 3: Ty Montgomery – GB at ATL ($5,800)

Montgomery’s usage in Week 1 – 19 carries and 4 targets resulting in 93 all-purpose yards and a TD – is a very good sign for his fantasy prospects moving forward.

Especially in this offense.

The Falcons allowed 6.58 yards per carry to the Bears backs in Week 1, the 4th highest yards per carry average in 2016, and Montgomery finished last week as the 7th highest scoring fantasy RB… Against Seattle’s vaunted defense.

Need I say more?

Tier 4: James White – NE at NO ($4,000)

Starting a NE running back with Belichick at the helm has been like playing Russian roulette. However, White was on the field for 53% of the Patriots offense snaps Thursday night, received the 2nd most carries (10), and saw 5 targets in the passing game.

Now, this is White’s 4th season in the NFL, and Thursday was the 1st time he received more than 7 carries in a game. So, you have to figure that’s about the ceiling. However, given his pass catching ability and elusiveness, he doesn’t need many touches to have a day.

Wide Receiver

*Tier 1: $7,000+, Tier 2: $7,000-$6,000, Tier 3: $6,000-$5,000, Tier 4: Under $5,000

Tier 1: Brandin Cooks – NE at NO ($8,800)

See Tom Brady above, then add that Amendola is out, and this is Cooks return New Orleans.

Cooks might flirt with 200 yards.

Tier 2: Larry Fitzgerald – ARI at IND ($6,500)

Larry Fitzgerald saw 13 targets in Week 1, John Brown is out for this one, and the Colts just allowed Jared Goff to go 21-29 for 306 yards and a TD.

Moving on.

Tier 3: Davante Adams – GB at ATL ($5,600)

I’m not sure why his salary is so low, but I’m going to enjoy it while it lasts.

This game figures to be high scoring – it opened with the 2nd highest point total of the week, and the Packers have the 5th highest projected individual team total of the week at 27.

Due to the match-up, Randall Cobb saw a bit more attention from Rodgers in Week 1 than we should expect weekly. Adams still saw 7 targets.

In a much more favorable match-up against the Falcons, I’m expecting a monster game from Mr. Adams who finished 2nd in receiving TDs a season ago.

Tier 4: DeSean Jackson – TB vs. CHI ($4,900)

DeSean Jackson looks to have developed a nice chemistry with Jameis – who, as mentioned earlier, should be in for a nice game.

What?! Hard Knocks isn’t a reliable source?

The biggest reason to like DeSean in this one, though? Marcus Cooper is one of the more underrated corners in the league, just helped to limit Julio Jones to 66 yards in Week 1, and at 6’2″ is one of the few DBs with the height to compete with Mike Evans.

Jackson is likely to see a lot of single coverage, targets for days, and should ball out in his Bucs debut.

Tight End

*Tier 1: $5,000+, Tier 2: $5,000-$4,000, Tier 3: $4,000-$3,000, Tier 4: Under $3,000

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski – NE at NO ($6,900)

If you haven’t noticed, I like the Patriots this week. The Pats have the highest projected individual team total at 31.5, and at -125 odds, seems like the oddsmakers think there’s a pretty good chance they go over.

Gronk saw 6 targets last week, and sees a much more favorable match-up here.

Tier 2: Kyle Rudolph – MIN at PIT ($4,200)

For the most part, the upper echelon tight ends have tough match-ups in Week 2, and while Rudolph doesn’t necessarily come to mind when thinking of the top TEs, the Steelers were one of the worst in defending the position a season ago.

Rudolph received just 3 targets in Week 1, but I think that was largely due to game flow as the Saints secondary allowed Thielen and Diggs to have their way. On the positive, Rudolph caught all 3 of his targets for 26 yards and a TD, finishing the week as the 8th highest scoring TE in PPR formats.

There is a chance that Sam Bradford is limited, or out Sunday, which would diminish this offense drastically. However, the TEs are known as a security blanket, so that might actually increase Rudolph’s activity.

Tier 3: Charles Clay – BUF at CAR ($3,000)

More on Clay here. Also, like Jared Cook this week.

Tier 4: Zach Miller – CHI at TB ($2,900)

Kevin White is the latest Bears receiver to go down for the season, and Mike Glennon‘s options are now about as limited as someone in the Louis store with $300.

Miller saw 6 targets a week ago, and the Bucs allowed 4.7 receptions and 54.4 yards per game to TEs in 2016. I like his odds at putting up double-digit fantasy points here.

Defense/Special Teams

*Tier 1: $3,500+, Tier 2: $3,500-$3,000, Tier 3: Under $3,000

Tier 1: Seattle Seahawks ($4,000)

The 49ers haven’t won in Seattle since 2011, and the Jets are projected to put up more points than SF this week.

Tier 2: Detroit Lions ($3,500)

The Lions intercepted Palmer thrice (returning one for a TD), and held the Cards to 23 points in route to the 6th best fantasy DST performance of Week 1.

No QB has more interceptions than Eli since he came into the league in 2004. Eli has thrown 216 over that time frame, next closest? Drew Brees at 189 despite attempting 1,023 more passes.

Tier 3: Washington Redskins ($2,900)

Goff looked good in Week 1, but they played the Colts.

Let’s not get too excited.

The Rams defense was responsible for 69% of their points on Sunday – putting up 2 TDs, and a safety. So, let’s hold off on anointing this Rams offense as the new hotness.

Good luck this week, and as always, thanks for reading! Be sure to subscribe, and check me out on Twitter @maxingyourodds

 

 

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