DraftKings Starts of the Week – Week 12

Quarterback

*Tier 1 – $7,000+, Tier 2 – $7,000-$6,000, Tier 3 – $6,000 and under

Tier 1: Tom Brady – NE @ NYJ ($7,800)

I’m not playing these Patriot games. Brady will play, and play well. The Jets have one of the best run defenses in the league, so I’m expecting the Patriots to spread them out, and put up around 45 pass attempts. Brady + 40 pass attempts + an exploitable secondary = resounding joy, and happiness for all of Brady’s fantasy owners.

Tier 2: Russell Wilson – SEA @ TB ($6,700)

Russell Wilson is starting to look like Russell Wilson, and the Bucs defense looks like… The Bucs defense. They’ve allowed the 4th most passing TDs (20), and the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QBs (18.8/game). While the Bucs d has been improved these past 2 weeks (on paper), they played the Bears and Chiefs, so that’s not saying much.

Tier 3: Carson Palmer – ARI @ ATL ($5,300)

Word on the street is that Carson Palmer is washed up, and he very well might be. While that’s debatable, the Falcons pass defense being virtually non-existent isn’t. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs (21.7/game), and the 2nd most passing TDs (23). This game had the highest opening point total, 51, so the oddsmakers aren’t exactly expecting a defensive battle. I’m not either.

Running Back

*Tier 1 – $7,000+, Tier 2 – $7,000-$5,000, Tier 3 – $5,000 and under

Tier 1: David Johnson – ARI @ ATL ($8,900)

Johnson has gone for more than 100 all-purpose yards in every game this season, the Falcons d can’t stop a nosebleed, and as I just mentioned, this game had the highest opening point total. There’s nothing to not like here.

Tier 2: Rashad Jennings – NYG @ CLE ($5,600)

Jennings has put up double-digit DK FPTS in 3 of his last 4 games, and will be facing a Browns defense who’s allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing backs (24.8). The Giants have put an emphasis on improving their miserable ground attack, and have been pretty effective in doing so. I’m gonna go out on a limb here – Jennings puts up his 1st 100 yard rushing day of the season.

Tier 3: Jonathan Stewart – CAR @ OAK ($5,000)

There’s a lot of value in this tier this week, but I like Stewart the most of the bunch. Yes, he’s been lousy the past 3 weeks, and the Panthers are without 2 starting lineman (C – Ryan Kalil, and LT – Michael Oher), but it’s hard to not love the matchup and he’s practically a lock for 15-20 touches. 

Wide Receiver

*Tier 1 – $7,000+, Tier 2 – $7,000-$5,000, Tier 3: $5,000 and under

Tier 1: Larry Fitzgerald – ARI @ ATL ($7,000)

I like the Palmer, Johnson, Fitzgerald stack this week… If you’re into that kind of thing. Fitzgerald has nearly twice as many targets (106) as any other Cardinals WR (John Brown 57, Michael Floyd 55), and 39% of Palmer’s TD passes have gone to either Fitz or the aforementioned Johnson.

Tier 2: Doug Baldwin – SEA @ TB ($6,400)

Baldwin is averaging 22.27 DK FPTS over the past 3 weeks, and as mentioned earlier, Russell Wilson is playing his ass off. I’m expecting Top-10, maybe even Top-5 production from Baldwin this week against this pervious TB secondary.

Tier 3: DeVante Parker – MIA vs. SF ($4,700)

WRs have had their way with the 49ers, Parker has seen an uptick in targets over the past 2 weeks, and Landry/Stills are both banged up. Parker has Top-10 WR upside this week.

Tight End

*Tier 1 – $5,500+, Tier 2 – $5,500-$3,500, Tier 3 – $3,500 and under

Tier 1: Greg Olsen – CAR @ OAK ($5,800)

Olsen has been quiet the past few weeks, but the Raiders have been terrible against TEs, so if Cam has time to throw, Olsen should be open… All day.

Tier 2: Martellus Bennett – NE @ NYJ ($4,500)

There’s a chance Gronk plays this week, but even if he does, I like Bennett. Now, the Jets have been decent against TEs, so I’ll admit, this is a gut call. However, as mentioned earlier I expect Brady and the Pats to spread out the Jets, and after Bennett’s less than impressive performance last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bennett engaged early and often.

Tier 3: C.J. Fiedorowicz – HOU vs. SD ($3,300)

Not the greatest matchup, but Fiedorowicz has been Brock Osweiler’s favorite target, and I don’t see that changing come Sunday.

Defense/Special Teams

*Tier 1 – $3,500+, Tier 2 – $3,500-$3,000, Tier 3 – $3,000 and under

Tier 1: Denver Broncos ($3,700)

The Broncos should have Talib and Wolfe back, are at home, and in a division matchup against the Chiefs who are struggling offensively and without their #1 WR – Jeremy Maclin. Alex Smith doesn’t turn the ball over often, but the Broncos should get a few sacks, and this game had the lowest opening point total of the week (40.5).

Tier 2: Baltimore Ravens ($3,100)

No, these aren’t the Ray Lewis led Ravens, but they’re far from lousy, and should finally get Elvis Dumervil back this week. Even more appealing is the state of the Bengals offense. Cincy will be without Andy Dalton’s two top receiving threats in A.J. Green, and Giovani Bernard, and the Ravens are the #2 fantasy defense against opposing TEs – meaning the 3rd best receiving threat, Tyler Eifert, shouldn’t be much of a factor. I just don’t see how the Bengals generate offense.

Tier 3: New Orleans Saints ($2,800)

Surprisingly, the Saints defense hasn’t been all that bad lately. Over the past 4 weeks, they held the Seahawks to 20 points, 49ers 23, Broncos 25, and Panthers 23, and have 4 interceptions, and 3 fumble recoveries over that span. Oh, and rookie Jared Goff is coming to town, making his 1st career road start. The Saints could surprise some people, and finish in the Top-10 this week.

Best of luck this week, and feel free to share your winnings! Also, be sure to check me out on Instagram/Facebook: maximizeyourodds, and Twitter: maxingyourodds or shoot me an email: leonard@maximizeyourodds.com for betting picks, and/or fantasy advice.

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