8/18: Diamondbacks at Padres – Analysis, and Betting Prediction


The Diamondbacks and Padres begin a 4 game set tonight at Petco Park, in a division matchup between 2 teams battling for the division crown… The worst team in the NL West. Coming into the season, the Backs were projected to have a solid season, and that just hasn’t happened. The Padres have been… Well… The Padres. Both teams come into the series at 50-70, but there should be some fireworks.

9 Innings of Batting Practice

The Diamondbacks’ struggling righty Archie Bradley gets the start tonight, while the Padres send recently acquired Paul Clemens to the mound… Moving on.

Ok, I guess I’ll provide some numbers…. But, I’m not happy about it. On the season, Bradley hasn’t been too awful, his 4.91 ERA is somewhat respectable for an almost rookie, pitching in hitter friendly Chase Field (his road numbers are significantly better). However, his WHIP on the year sits at 1.52 – which is amongst the league’s worst for a starter – and he’s allowed 14 runs over his last 3 starts, making it through the 5th inning only once… Not good.

Meanwhile, Clemens has started only 6 games this season, and has a 5.34 ERA with a WHIP of 1.47 over those starts. He has yet to record a quality start, which would be hard for him to do, seeing that he hasn’t pitched past the 5th in any of his starts. He doesn’t miss many bats, and I don’t expect many K’s tonight.

We should see both bullpens tonight, neither of which is good. However, the slight bullpen edge goes to San Diego…

Pitching Edge: ?????

Too Bad Stanton and Frazier Won’t Make an Appearance

Arizona is 5-4 on the year vs. San Diego, but the Padres have taken 2 of 3 at Petco. Over the 9 games in this series, an average of 11.4 runs have been scored; going under 10 only 3 times.

Since the break, the D’Backs rank 10th in the bigs in runs scored. They come into this one haven taken 2 of 3 vs. the Mets; averaging 9 runs per game (28 total). San Diego comes in, on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. They went 2-7 over their 9 game road trip where they scored a total of 22 runs. However, they’ve gone over the total in 59% of their home games (33-23-1), and this is the perfect matchup to get their bats back on track.

Edge: ?????

Betting Prediction

This game opened as -110/-110, meaning Vegas agrees with me… It’s a toss up. Flip a coin. Two bad teams, playing a meaningless game, with the season coming to an end; no clue who wins. But, if you haven’t noticed the trend, I feel the total of 8.5 is entirely too low. This one goes over… Easy.

Diamondbacks at Padres Over 8.5 (-120)


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