When it comes to waivers, I try to look at the big picture. Chasing last week’s points never tends to work out, and often requires tough decisions on who to drop this week, in order to get last week’s guy.
That’s because it is.
Now, maybe I’m just cursed, but whoever misses the cut and gets dropped, always tends to ball out the following week, and the week after that, sometimes even the week following that one as well.
Back to the point.
Huge fantasy days are often the product of match-up and/or game plan, and aren’t necessarily indicative of what’s to come. Sure, if you need receiver help, Geronimo Allison isn’t the worst option. But, the Packers fell behind Sunday, Randall Cobb was inactive which resulted in Adams/Nelson garnering additional attention… Allison just happened to be the beneficiary. But, 72 of his 122 yards came on one play, in OT – his performance looks a lot better on paper.
Regardless, could it happen again? Absolutely.
Will you feel comfortable starting him this week? Probably not.
Odds are, you’ll pick him up, and he’ll never crack your starting lineup (barring injury). Two weeks later, there will be some new guy who balls out, and you’ll drop Allison to pick him up. Week 7 comes, and repeat.
Don’t play waiver roulette, and don’t be the guy who drops Jay Ajayi before his outburst last season to pick up *random waiver guy X*.
I may, or may not, have experience being that guy.
Instead, look at opportunity (snaps, targets, carries, etc) – even when players put up “bad” weeks – to determine which guys you should be picking up. Here are some of the top players who are likely available (and will offer more value than simply occupying space on your bench) to target this week on waivers…
Trevor Siemian – DEN
Yahoo Ownership: 52%
ESPN Ownership: 39%
He’s become a weekly staple at this point.
Jared Goff – LAR
Yahoo Ownership: 12%
ESPN Ownership: 6%
Look, Goff deserves some credit for his play – he wasn’t an acclaimed, number 1 overall draft pick for no reason. However, last year was largely underwhelming so it’d be shortsighted to not mention the McVay effect.
The addition of an offensive line, and competent receivers doesn’t hurt either.
Through 3 weeks, Goff already has as many passing TDs as he did in his rookie season, at 817 yards he’s likely to surpass the 1,089 he put up a season ago this week (he started 7 games in 2016), his 14.26 yards per completion ranks 4th, and he’s the #11 ranked fantasy QB.
I could go on and on, but simply put, he’s been balling and there’s no reason to expect him to slow down.
Deshaun Watson – HOU
Yahoo Ownership: 15%
ESPN Ownership: 12%
The fact that Watson actually looked comfortable Sunday and almost picked up the W in his 2nd career NFL start, on the road, facing the defending Super Bowl champions, is reason enough to believe the hype.
Not to mention his stat line.
Then, there’s the remaining schedule: Browns, 49ers, Colts and Titans twice… He has a solid shot at being a Top-15 fantasy QB come season’s end.
Sterling Shepard – NYG
Yahoo Ownership: 35%
ESPN Ownership: 31%
Shepard’s 22 targets rank 22nd among receivers (if you’ve never heard Jay-Z’s “22 Twos” do yourself a favor and check it out). Now no, 22nd isn’t overly impressive, but when you break it down on a per game basis (7.3), and consider that he plays for a team with no running game, and 2 potential HOF receivers to draw away coverage, there’s plenty to like here.
His weekly floor should be fairly high in PPR leagues.
Paul Richardson – SEA
Yahoo Ownership: 11%
ESPN Ownership: 3%
Richardson is a guy I loved in the preseason, have mentioned several times since the season began, and will continue to trumpet until he gets the love he deserves.
Doug Baldwin could potentially miss time due to a groin injury suffered Sunday, and the Seahawks receiving options were already scanty. But, even with a healthy Baldwin, Richardson has averaged 6.3 targets per game, and has a TD in 2 of the ‘Hawks 1st 3 games.
DST Streamer of the Week
Packers DST vs. Bears
Only 7 teams have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing DSTs than the Chicago Bears, and while their offensive line is getting healthy, Glennon has been sacked about twice per game. Meanwhile, the Packers have the 4th most sacks of any team, and hopefully, will have Mike Daniels and Nick Perry back on Sunday.
The Bears are averaging 15.7 points per game (5th fewest), Glennon has tossed 3 passes to opposing defenders, and this one will be played in Lambeau.
Pretty safe bet on the Packers DST exceeding their weekly average of 5.3 ppg in this one.
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